MI6, Western Intelligence, Ukraine, and The Russian People

The Perched Eye blog is 14 years old,  from 2009 with President Obama's election. Our focus has been eclectic ...  the styles and directions of American politics and culture, with an occasional comment on the impact of new technologies. Our observations sometimes attract a critical eye, but the 'pen' remains unblunted.

Today, I watched a Youtube interview with the English intelligence chief (MI6, Sir Richard Moore,…the ghost thusly spake) who commented on "his" service's view about the current Russian invasion of Ukraine…and on the resultant backfires in Russia itself…and on Sir Richard’s ‘faith’ in an eventual Russian people's public non-support of Putin and his invasion of Ukraine. 

But, IMO, the Russian people are not the yet-to-arise heroes the West (and their intel groups, MI6 prominently) put hope in.  Rather, the Russian ‘people though perhaps ‘heroic’ inside, are in day-to-day reality totally and ruthlessly controlled to a state of numb paralysis. That is the reality the West must constantly keep in mind and deal with, and never let Russia’s siren song to seduce our people.

I’ve written about the Russian people before and stated my perspective on the Russian ‘State’ (a history of total state control), and on the Russian people (nihilistic, born to the yoke of servitude, number one globally alcoholic,…but yet human underneath.)

One can only hope about the Russian peoples' desire for a better government, but theirs is a terribly high hill to climb. (For the Russian people to be heard, many hundreds of thousands might have to die by their own ‘leaders’ hands.)

PUTIN'S SPECIAL UKRAINE OPERATION: HE CONTINUES TO DIG DEEPER INTO A HELLISH PIT, AND WINTER IS HERE!

The Perched Eye blog is 12+ years old, beginning from 2009 with President Obama's election. Our focus has been eclectic ...  the shapes and directions of American politics and culture, with occasional comments on the potential impact of new technologies. Pericles21's observations sometimes attract a critical eye, but the 'pen' remains unblunted. 

Putin’s Ukraine debacle has turned into a more giant flop than it looked 2 weeks into his February 24, 2022 "Special Operation" (i.e., the invasion of Ukraine). 

And, Putin's big 'Fail', it seems, is because he did not see how fully he had already conquered his demons (the fearful anxiety from the days of the French-speaking Russian court that Russia was inadequate when compared to western civilization, i.e., that Russia wasn't really 'western' enough..just as Russia wasn't really Asian enough to play marbles with China.)

But despite the good position Russia was in domestically, internationally, and economically...and getting better with every barrel and liter of crude oil and gas that were flowing through the pipelines from Russia's Artic oil fields to Europe ... Putin still made an ill-conceived move that has substantially damaged Russia's global political and economic goodwill (and stability) built up since 1990. 

Putin set in motion a downhill rolling of a heretofore magically expanding, social-economic-political snowball full of riches. Things have steadily worsened since the Special Ukraine Operation began..

But Putin's latest move is perhaps more disastrous than the others that came before - his so-called "mobilization" of "300,000" patriotic fighters (read, 'untrained and physically doubtful') to go immediately to the Ukraine battlefront...often with just a few days of 'training', and badly equipped with WW2 (or even WW1) rifles...and virtually no winter clothing. (Conscripts have been 'asked' to shop for essential battlefield equipment themselves or funded by their families!)

I predicted the lack of training and support for these patriots in my September 21, 2022, post (UKRAINE: THE LAMENT OF NEW RUSSIAN CONSCRIPTS) ... which was a very truncated (arrogant even?) prediction of a disaster,... for the conscripts. But I was not prepared for the truth as it turned out. From that post: 

"The lament of a new Russian conscript headed for Ukraine — cotton shirt and pants (& winter’s coming), sneakers, a canteen of meth-laced weak tea, a WW2/1 rifle, and 30 bullets… you won’t last long enough to even use that. But, 'Rodina'."

But there is more. Putin's Problem is not just his current failures in Ukraine.

While Putin is virtually an absolute ruler, his absolute powers have led to a grandiosely myopic complacency that has prevented him and his generals from modernizing their leadership styles and especially updating Russia's political-military strategies and objectives. Russia has failed especially in keeping current with the tactical field operations of the Russian military itself. 

Combine these failures with the FACT that for the last 30 years or so, Russia’s generals and officer elite have been willing, if not initiating, factors in selling Russian technology and military equipment on the global black market. This has made the Russian army a paper mache' Tiger that in reality is a carnival ask made of gum wrappers and old rubber bands.

In terms of economics, Putin nearly had it all but threw it all away...the fox was in the hen house but greedily pounced too soon and for no good reason. 

Up until February 24, 2022, with his "Special Ukraine Operation," Putin had won Russia's 21st-century war - an economic, political-energy resource-intelligence dominance over the western world, including manipulating the political clockworks of America itself. 

Did Putin fail to recognize how fully he had conquered his demons? The answer has to be, "Yes". Western Europe was dependent on Russian fossil energy, the Russian people were pacified by the commercial detente that brought McDonald’s into their world at home, and perhaps the best of everything was that Russia’s satellites were happy, or at least not terribly unhappy, being commercial partners with what they thought was Putin’s modern leadership based on enlightened economic partnerships.  

In February 2022, Putin’s stupid invasion of Ukraine swiftly erased much, if not all goodwill (and apparent stability) built up since 1990. 

But Russia's loss of face and respect happened so swiftly that it raises QUESTIONS as to what exactly was happening underneath the Russian mask?  (we have a good idea that there was all along much less than we thought, or feared.). The big question now is, "will, or can Putin save his, and Russia's skin?"

UKRAINE: THE LAMENT OF NEW RUSSIAN CONSCRIPTS

 The Perched Eye blog is 12+ years old,  from 2009 with President Obama's election. Our focus has been eclectic ...  the ways and directions of American politics and culture, and occasionally commenting on the potential impact of new technologies. Pericles21's observations sometimes attract a critical eye, but the 'pen' remains unblunted. 

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Putin has declared a call-up of maybe 300,000. Sad. Putin doesn’t have to train or equip them (naive western reasoning).

The lament of a new Russian conscript headed for Ukraine — cotton shirt and pants (& winter’s coming), sneakers, a canteen of meth-laced weak tea, a WW2/1 rifle, and 30 bullets… you won’t last long enough to even use that. But, 'Rodina'.

SOMETHING ABOUT RUSSIA: A LOOK AT ITS EMBARRASSING, SELF-DESTRUCTIVE INVASION OF UKRAINE — SHOULD WE HAVE SYMPATHY FOR THE DEVIL… OR, AT LEAST EMPATHY FOR A NEAR-PSYCHOTIC NATION?

The Perched Eye blog is 12+ years old,  from 2009 with President Obama's election. Our focus has been eclectic ...  the ways and directions of American politics and culture, and occasionally commenting on the potential impact of new technologies. Pericles21's observations sometimes attract a critical eye, but the 'pen' remains unblunted.                                                                                                                                                                                  -------------------

Despite the title of this post, America’s General Colin Powell’s words regarding how he intended to respond to Iraqi Saddam Husein’s invasion of Kuwait are very appropriate for how the world should deal with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine until Russia can change its ways — ‘…isolate the Iraqi Army (Russia in this case), choke it and kill it!’ (in roughly those words.) Ukraine, the invaded victim, assisted by its western allies, has begun that process of resistance against Russia, and it will continue to fight until Russia is serious about peace or it collapses.

Russia as a state, and its people, have historically worn a cloak of dark moodiness and mystery that has often posed an enigmatic problem for the world to figure out. The quest for global stability through international diplomacy is not the least reason to try to understand Russia. But with the ‘Ukraine Matter,’ Russia appears to have detoured, or returned to the path of an irreconcilable predator — contrary to the hopes and dreams of ‘fellow travelers’ and supporters who had justifiably developed visions of a peaceful and prosperous Russian future. In harsh retrospect, Russia’s February 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine seems to have been one of modern history’s dumbest moves (or, smartest move if one is motivated to ‘engineer’ a Marxist Dialectic transformation of the Russian communist movement.) In the six months since it began, the ‘Ukraine Matter’ has wrecked Russia’s economic and social pillars (the domestic stability and international status that Russia deservedly earned after 1991, the (titular) end of the Communist regime.) Russia has not only failed to dominate the Ukraine stage but has proved itself to be a hollow log stuffed with obsolete or inoperable weapons and more outdated, ineffective war leadership and strategies. Will a deliberate ‘dialectic’ re-set restore revolutionary zeal and start a new era of Russian state success?

Russia’s Ukraine ‘embarrassment’ has not only caused a loss of its international status but also signals that more Russian satellite nations (Chechnya, especially) may follow Ukraine into distancing themselves from Russia and either joining or favoring NATO and the EU.

Summarizing. the Ukraine Matter seems to make no sense from the Russian point of view: Putin, Russia’s real-life absolute dictator, had it all — complete ‘ownership’ of Russia’s financial and resources wealth, complete control of Russia’s oligarchs, a newly satisfied population enjoying a near-western lifestyle with Starbucks, McDonald's, and freedom to travel. And, there was something new with the Russian people — ORDINARY RUSSIANS WANTED TO RETURN HOME TO MOTHER RUSSIA AFTER SUNNING IN MORROCO, ITALY OR SPAIN, and shopping in Paris and London. Russia’s future looked rosy, and all of THAT should have assured Putin and his establishment of future nights of restful sleep. But it all seems to have crumbled away (or was thrown away) in the 6 months since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, to September 3, 2022.

(Note: Russia has had the best ‘deal’ of any invading nation perhaps in all history — Ukraine and its western allies have deliberately declared “off limits” responsively significant military strikes into Russian soil (although there have been civil acts of sabotage). This strategy is so much in Putin’s favor that he can hardly complain about anything while Russian army units suffer almost 5x Ukraine casualties (~49,000 Russian soldiers killed since February 24, 2022, as of September 3, 2022).

Until February 24, 2022, with Russia’s Ukraine invasion (which was initiated like one of Putin’s idle afterthoughts), the world of free nations and even not-so-free were like grazing deer watching a hungry wolf circling the meadow but believing their neighbor, not them, would be the next target.

BUT, the shock of the Ukraine invasion was not so much that Ukraine was targeted and pounced on as much as the shock was when Ukraine said in effect, ‘Sorry, we’re not going to put up with your bullshit, Russian Bear, so “Fuck Off”…and here’s something to remember us with, a big HIMARS round up your a…s!’

And now the secret is out: sheep, goats, cows, and deer have horns too…and are very willing to use them. Ukraine has wised up to Russia’s ’Game’ and has run to the Big Bull (NATO) for protection. And the Russian bear is bleeding, badly…as it must continue to bleed until it backs away from Ukraine. (Meanwhile, Finland, Sweden, Chechnya, and other ‘Stans’ are getting ready to follow Ukraine’s path.)

An overview of Russia shows historical cycles of flameout and rebirth.

Russia is now in a ‘flameout’ cycle, and the ‘why’ is the Russian Enigma that has troubled many artists over centuries who have authored, composed, and sung of Russia’s weary soul that seems to forever drag Russia back from sunny meadows back into the dark forest This is a cycle not fully understood even by its own people…who have learned to consume vast quantities of Vodka to mute its presence in their lives. (But the flameout-rebirth cycle does fit the Marxist Dialectic theory of history …so perhaps the current flameout is not so dire a situation to Russia’s leaders, i.e., Putin.)

(Russia’s path is a continuing, enigmatic drifting and wallowing in stormy waves of its own making, but this current Russian-made maelstrom with Ukraine is too much for the rest of the world to sit and watch. So, Russia’s antagonists, the western allies, have decided to support Ukraine's resistance to Russia’s invasion.)

Russia is a vast geographic region of natural riches and hard-at-work people. Yet, historically Russia has always been burdened by a ‘monkey on its back’ that has anchored it in place or even sunk the ship of state. That ‘monkey’ has been a monarchical or totalitarian Russian state that has locked its people in serfdom and doomed them to seek a different and better existence. This ‘push-pull’ dynamic has made for a repertoire of great literary works, music, and poetry … yet reflecting terrible social angst.

The current Russian implosion cycle needn’t have happened. But as some see it, it had to happen. Is it because Russia (its people and leaders) just can’t bear up to peaceful success and happiness? Or, is it because ‘It’s just that ‘time’ for a Marxist Dialectic reset?

And this implosion had to be precipitated by the upwelling of self-destructiveness from the soul-darkness of one of Mother Russia’s sons, i.e., Vladimir Putin.

Putin is Russia’s destined (since 1991) total-power dictator (or has been until…next week, next month?) who achieved for Russia a longed-for status of stable foreign relations, successful economic trade links, and even by ‘Western’ standards, a high standard of living for its people. Yet, in 6 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin has apparently blown it all away… or at least precipitated irreversible cracks in the Russian hegemony with important neutral buffer states now openly fleeing to full NATO membership (Sweden and Finland officially admitted, and Ukraine’s application to be admitted to NATO as a “new strategic reality.”)

Overall, the Russian taint (enigma) of soul-restlessness and dreams of ‘serving’ Mother Russia to restore her imperial status have just about wrecked any global respect (and fear) Russia has gained over the 70 years since Stalin.

Russia’s enigmas add up to a flimsily-substructured nation that is occasionally operational yet always seems to be standing on spindly legs. Russia seems to gather strength to stand on its own but then falters and falls … but it falls only so low.

The Motherland consumes its children. As pointed out, the first Russian enigma is its soul-darkness so often portrayed in words and songs, novels, poems, symphonic musings, opera,…etc. that picture Russia even by ‘its own’ as dark, moody, soulful, poetic, and tragic. And its people sense all of that and survive with alcohol. (Perhaps this is why Russia has the world’s second-highest level of alcoholism, 21%, after Hungary’s 21.2+%!). The result is global portraiture of Russia’s people as inwardly despondent despite their heroic steadfastness and sacrifice to The Rodina, Mother Russia. The Motherland consumes.

The Russian folk seem resigned to servitude yet resentful and yearning for freedom…creating a Nihilism that is never far from the surface of Russian life…and creating a Russian self-awareness of their depression and near psychosis.

The second face of Russia is the people themselves. Robust, poetic, dedicated, brainy, heroic (even in the face of pressures from its own nation) … all good stuff. But then, they show tendencies to be nihilistic, fatalistic, moody, soul-dark, looking for leadership but distrustful from centuries of serfdom, isolated on a mid-continent ‘island’ separated from Asia and ‘Europe,’ Slavic yet not wholly so.

Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine. (Are we witnessing a 21st-century re-enactment of a 600BC battle between the Scythian Horse Lords (Ukraine, Crimea) and their antagonists? Indeed, the unity, resourcefulness, and especially Ukraine’s ability to quickly adopt allied weapons to their own advantage reflects an inherited tribal facility with modern technology to assure their survival. In the same vein, Ukraine is noted for its expertise and quality of industrial products. Ukraine, the 21st century Horse Lords: Herodotus, the 4th century BC Greek historian, would be amazed but not surprised at Ukraine’s willingness to take on Russia ... with success.)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has proved a global ‘reveal’ — that Russia is a hollow shell, rotted from within by its own leaders’ corruption. Yet even from its weakened position, Russia (Putin) continues to sacrifice Russian youth, destroying Russia’s economic stability for seemingly nothing more than to sustain Putin’s ego.

From being on good (and profitable) terms with just about every nation on the planet (Western Europe, the Baltics, Ukraine, the Balkans, Chechnya, and the ‘Stans’), and raking in huge profits from fossil fuel sales, Russia has in 6 months lost almost all of this ‘capital.’

An especially critical loss to Russia are the choices of former buffer countries, Finland and Sweden, to seek admission to NATO … and they may be followed by other servitude allies like Chechnya and some of the ‘Stans’ who now see themselves as nations, families, and stability perched on the edge of a cliff at the mercy of Putin’s unstable, cruel, inhumane ego that has shown itself capable of WW2 atrocities and mass destruction. The murders and torture of Ukraine citizens have been extremely costly to Russia.

The effects of Russia and its pains now extend beyond its borders, creating a planet that looks like a dysfunctional family. And nothing excuses Russia’s behavior toward Ukraine from being seen as a cruel, torturing, and near-psychotic state.

PUTIN’S MAY 9TH STARBURST — BE WARNED AND PRAY TO WAKE UP MAY 10 TO A PLANET STILL INTACT

The Perched Eye blog is 12+ years old, from 2009 with President Obama's first term. The focus has been eclectic ...  the ways and directions of American politics and culture, and occasionally summarizing the potential impacts of new technologies. Pericles21's observations sometimes attract a critical eye, but the 'pen' remains unblunted.

Putin will do something to salvage his and Russia’s loos of face in Ukraine. He can’t yet claim victory…but there are still 18 hours before May 9. Ground war victory is not in the picture but Putin doesn't have to rely on just boots-on-the-ground - he can use one of the two or three operational super jets (SU-57s) to deliver TACNukes on the nearly 100% devastated Mariupol to to finish off the Azovstal steel plant. 

If Putin was smarter (not just KGB-trained sneaky-evil) he might spin being forced to back out of Ukraine to morph that embarrassment into an older brother gesture and offer to rebuild, and pull Ukraine closer to Mother Russia’s generous breast. 

But the intelligent-person option is a very outside option for Putin because he seems to act in a compensating, small-being-in-command manner and he must literally protect his back from sharky generals and pissed-off oligarchs.

 We must pray for Ukraine and hope the world wakes up safe on May 10. (Nevertheless, we also have reason to believe the American Defense-Intel team has long 'gamed' May 9 and have effective, and maybe clever, ‘stops’ to whatever Putin might have in mind.

IT IS INSANE THAT A COUNTRY (RUSSIA), WITH A GDP LESS THAN ITALY’S IS BLACKMAILING THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY TO BEND TO THE WILLFUL CRYING OF A PSYCHOPATHIC DICTATOR (? BUT QED?()

 The Perched Eye blog is 12+ years old, from 2009 with President Obama's first term. The focus has been eclectic ...  the ways and directions of American politics and culture, and occasionally summarizing the potential impacts of new technologies. Pericles21's observations sometimes attract a critical eye, but the 'pen' remains unblunted.                         -----------

(Biden POTUS's economic sanctions in response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine are brilliant, from the framework of threatening Putin's personal wealth and potentially damaging Russia's national economy. Biden's response has also been effective in its swift response and breadth, especially its application in stages ... as if designed by a psychologist's advice to parents of an acting-out child.)

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Putin’s disinformation campaign is bluntly threatening as if he just doesn't care about the 'rules' of superpower diplomacy. 

Putin misbehaves this way while he whines about not getting the proper respect Russia (him, personally) deserves as a superpower...while he threatens to push his nuclear button toys if he doesn't get his way...even though no one is threatening to invade Russia's borders... and as he violates those borders to terrorize democratically elected governments. 

Putin is getting away with these insane disconnects because he ‘knows’ his  threats of nuclear ‘acting out’ stymies the West from giving back to Russia its own punishments. 

Putin displays a deadpan public countenance while he destroys cities, tortures and mass-graves civilian populations, and ignores ‘rules’ of engagements, all showing he feels no need to excuse or cloak his satanically self-anointing, brutal, cruel, cynical behavior. 

In words, Putin behaves like a traditional autocrat in the style of Stalin, who he openly admits is his guiding mentor for foreign policy ... and personal conduct. 

Any country or belief system that blocks Putin’s targets or objectives is to be eliminated in the style of Stalin - with excessive, overpowering cruelty. The crueler, the better to prevent future rebellion. 

And Putin’s objectives are openly stated — to recover the land and hegemony Russia ‘lost’ in 1991 with the breakup of the USSR, even to recover east Germany, the Baltic states, Finland, and even Poland. These pronouncements should terrify the now proudly sovereign nations.

The West is faced with Putin’s hate and fear of democratic self-determination that resulted in the freeing of Balkan and Baltic states from Russian hegemony — Putin will not stop with his long game of reversing that history. 

And now, after 20-some years of total control over Russia, Putin has very good reason to fear the consequences of his autocratic rule - he is aware that rebellion will no doubt target him personally as its first target.

When you can’t ‘win’ a war with incompetent military strategy, inadequate self-cannibalized equipment, and even your own troops don’t support your purpose, just brutalize, torture, and kill civilians…and do the same with your own troops. (Russia’s Ukraine invasion is a mirror of its WW2 behavior, even to accompanying and threatening its own troops with ‘corrective’ political units (the KGB in WW2, now, the FSB).)

The West’s response should be as direct and harsh as Russia’s but without targeting civilians or even shedding blood if possible, but still as a goal, … like it is doing with recent economic sanctions on Russia…and especially on the oligarchs, who Putin has joined up with, with little disguising, to economically rape and pillage his own country. 

(Biden POTUS's economic sanctions in response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine is brilliant, from the framework of threatening Putin's personal wealth as well as damaging Russia's national economy. And it is brilliant in its swift response,  its breadth, and especially its application in stages ... all as if desigend by a child psychologist's advising of parents of an acting out child.)

As for the West’s response, note Russia’s appeal to its successful maneuvering a proxy leadership into America’s government ….Donald Trump’s first steps as POTUS was to attempt to lift economic sanctions placed on Putin’s Russia resulting from its earlier land-grabbing cruelties in Georgia and Crimea. Trump continues to support Putin and Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

The overview —there is little chance Putin will (rationally) compromise over his Ukraine invasion. 

But, if Putin’s invasion of Ukraine isn’t stopped, he will proceed to destabilize other border democracies by the same formula — claim vested partial land ownership by population kinship, orchestrate political and civil destabilization from that platform, support insurrection then invasion and finally re-annexation in the face of a paralyzed West. 

Putin has to be stopped cold. THERE IS NO REASON A COUNTRY (RUSSIA), WITH A GDP LESS THAN ITALY’S IS BLACKMAILING THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY TO BEND TO THE WILLFUL CRYING OF AN AUTOCRATIC (AND PERHAPS PSYCHOPATHIC) DICTATOR.

RUSSIA'S UKRAINE LOSSES ARE A PETTY DICTATOR'S DREAM ARMY: BUT WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR THE DAMAGE TO UKRAINE?

 This blog is 12+ years old, from 2009 with President Obama's first term. The focus has been eclectic ...focusing on the ways and directions of American politics and culture, and occasionally new technologies. Pericles21's observations sometimes attract a critical eye, but the 'pen' remains unblunted.

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RUSSIAN WAR LOSSES IN UKRAINE: 

Over 17,200 Russian troops killed since Feb. 24. Ukraine’s military have also reported taking out 1,710 Russian armored personnel carriers, 597 tanks, 1,178 vehicles, 303 artillery pieces, 54 anti-aircraft warfare systems, 96 launch rocket systems, 127 planes, 129 helicopters, 73 fuel tanks, 21 pieces of special equipment, 71 UAVs, and seven boats...

The question remains - who/how will Ukraine be rebuilt after Putin's carpet artillery barrages that targeted Ukraine's civilian infrastructure? (Despite Ukraine never having invaded Russian territory (as Russia invaded Ukraine) or fired back on Russian artillery that fired from behind Russian boundaries, will Russia again flaunt international standards by ducking its responsibility for asymmetrically invading and damaging Ukraine?)

The answer seems obvious - all the sanctioned and frozen Russian and Russian proxy assets should be made to pay to rebuild Ukraine.