The Perched Eye blog is 12+ years old, from 2009 with President Obama's election. Our focus has been eclectic ... the ways and directions of American politics and culture, and occasionally commenting on the potential impact of new technologies. Pericles21's observations sometimes attract a critical eye, but the 'pen' remains unblunted. -------------------
Despite the title of this post, America’s General Colin Powell’s words regarding how he intended to respond to Iraqi Saddam Husein’s invasion of Kuwait are very appropriate for how the world should deal with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine until Russia can change its ways — ‘…isolate the Iraqi Army (Russia in this case), choke it and kill it!’ (in roughly those words.) Ukraine, the invaded victim, assisted by its western allies, has begun that process of resistance against Russia, and it will continue to fight until Russia is serious about peace or it collapses.
Russia as a state, and its people, have historically worn a cloak of dark moodiness and mystery that has often posed an enigmatic problem for the world to figure out. The quest for global stability through international diplomacy is not the least reason to try to understand Russia. But with the ‘Ukraine Matter,’ Russia appears to have detoured, or returned to the path of an irreconcilable predator — contrary to the hopes and dreams of ‘fellow travelers’ and supporters who had justifiably developed visions of a peaceful and prosperous Russian future. In harsh retrospect, Russia’s February 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine seems to have been one of modern history’s dumbest moves (or, smartest move if one is motivated to ‘engineer’ a Marxist Dialectic transformation of the Russian communist movement.) In the six months since it began, the ‘Ukraine Matter’ has wrecked Russia’s economic and social pillars (the domestic stability and international status that Russia deservedly earned after 1991, the (titular) end of the Communist regime.) Russia has not only failed to dominate the Ukraine stage but has proved itself to be a hollow log stuffed with obsolete or inoperable weapons and more outdated, ineffective war leadership and strategies. Will a deliberate ‘dialectic’ re-set restore revolutionary zeal and start a new era of Russian state success?
Russia’s Ukraine ‘embarrassment’ has not only caused a loss of its international status but also signals that more Russian satellite nations (Chechnya, especially) may follow Ukraine into distancing themselves from Russia and either joining or favoring NATO and the EU.
Summarizing. the Ukraine Matter seems to make no sense from the Russian point of view: Putin, Russia’s real-life absolute dictator, had it all — complete ‘ownership’ of Russia’s financial and resources wealth, complete control of Russia’s oligarchs, a newly satisfied population enjoying a near-western lifestyle with Starbucks, McDonald's, and freedom to travel. And, there was something new with the Russian people — ORDINARY RUSSIANS WANTED TO RETURN HOME TO MOTHER RUSSIA AFTER SUNNING IN MORROCO, ITALY OR SPAIN, and shopping in Paris and London. Russia’s future looked rosy, and all of THAT should have assured Putin and his establishment of future nights of restful sleep. But it all seems to have crumbled away (or was thrown away) in the 6 months since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, to September 3, 2022.
(Note: Russia has had the best ‘deal’ of any invading nation perhaps in all history — Ukraine and its western allies have deliberately declared “off limits” responsively significant military strikes into Russian soil (although there have been civil acts of sabotage). This strategy is so much in Putin’s favor that he can hardly complain about anything while Russian army units suffer almost 5x Ukraine casualties (~49,000 Russian soldiers killed since February 24, 2022, as of September 3, 2022).
Until February 24, 2022, with Russia’s Ukraine invasion (which was initiated like one of Putin’s idle afterthoughts), the world of free nations and even not-so-free were like grazing deer watching a hungry wolf circling the meadow but believing their neighbor, not them, would be the next target.
BUT, the shock of the Ukraine invasion was not so much that Ukraine was targeted and pounced on as much as the shock was when Ukraine said in effect, ‘Sorry, we’re not going to put up with your bullshit, Russian Bear, so “Fuck Off”…and here’s something to remember us with, a big HIMARS round up your a…s!’
And now the secret is out: sheep, goats, cows, and deer have horns too…and are very willing to use them. Ukraine has wised up to Russia’s ’Game’ and has run to the Big Bull (NATO) for protection. And the Russian bear is bleeding, badly…as it must continue to bleed until it backs away from Ukraine. (Meanwhile, Finland, Sweden, Chechnya, and other ‘Stans’ are getting ready to follow Ukraine’s path.)
An overview of Russia shows historical cycles of flameout and rebirth.
Russia is now in a ‘flameout’ cycle, and the ‘why’ is the Russian Enigma that has troubled many artists over centuries who have authored, composed, and sung of Russia’s weary soul that seems to forever drag Russia back from sunny meadows back into the dark forest This is a cycle not fully understood even by its own people…who have learned to consume vast quantities of Vodka to mute its presence in their lives. (But the flameout-rebirth cycle does fit the Marxist Dialectic theory of history …so perhaps the current flameout is not so dire a situation to Russia’s leaders, i.e., Putin.)
(Russia’s path is a continuing, enigmatic drifting and wallowing in stormy waves of its own making, but this current Russian-made maelstrom with Ukraine is too much for the rest of the world to sit and watch. So, Russia’s antagonists, the western allies, have decided to support Ukraine's resistance to Russia’s invasion.)
Russia is a vast geographic region of natural riches and hard-at-work people. Yet, historically Russia has always been burdened by a ‘monkey on its back’ that has anchored it in place or even sunk the ship of state. That ‘monkey’ has been a monarchical or totalitarian Russian state that has locked its people in serfdom and doomed them to seek a different and better existence. This ‘push-pull’ dynamic has made for a repertoire of great literary works, music, and poetry … yet reflecting terrible social angst.
The current Russian implosion cycle needn’t have happened. But as some see it, it had to happen. Is it because Russia (its people and leaders) just can’t bear up to peaceful success and happiness? Or, is it because ‘It’s just that ‘time’ for a Marxist Dialectic reset?
And this implosion had to be precipitated by the upwelling of self-destructiveness from the soul-darkness of one of Mother Russia’s sons, i.e., Vladimir Putin.
Putin is Russia’s destined (since 1991) total-power dictator (or has been until…next week, next month?) who achieved for Russia a longed-for status of stable foreign relations, successful economic trade links, and even by ‘Western’ standards, a high standard of living for its people. Yet, in 6 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin has apparently blown it all away… or at least precipitated irreversible cracks in the Russian hegemony with important neutral buffer states now openly fleeing to full NATO membership (Sweden and Finland officially admitted, and Ukraine’s application to be admitted to NATO as a “new strategic reality.”)
Overall, the Russian taint (enigma) of soul-restlessness and dreams of ‘serving’ Mother Russia to restore her imperial status have just about wrecked any global respect (and fear) Russia has gained over the 70 years since Stalin.
Russia’s enigmas add up to a flimsily-substructured nation that is occasionally operational yet always seems to be standing on spindly legs. Russia seems to gather strength to stand on its own but then falters and falls … but it falls only so low.
The Motherland consumes its children. As pointed out, the first Russian enigma is its soul-darkness so often portrayed in words and songs, novels, poems, symphonic musings, opera,…etc. that picture Russia even by ‘its own’ as dark, moody, soulful, poetic, and tragic. And its people sense all of that and survive with alcohol. (Perhaps this is why Russia has the world’s second-highest level of alcoholism, 21%, after Hungary’s 21.2+%!). The result is global portraiture of Russia’s people as inwardly despondent despite their heroic steadfastness and sacrifice to The Rodina, Mother Russia. The Motherland consumes.
The Russian folk seem resigned to servitude yet resentful and yearning for freedom…creating a Nihilism that is never far from the surface of Russian life…and creating a Russian self-awareness of their depression and near psychosis.
The second face of Russia is the people themselves. Robust, poetic, dedicated, brainy, heroic (even in the face of pressures from its own nation) … all good stuff. But then, they show tendencies to be nihilistic, fatalistic, moody, soul-dark, looking for leadership but distrustful from centuries of serfdom, isolated on a mid-continent ‘island’ separated from Asia and ‘Europe,’ Slavic yet not wholly so.
Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine. (Are we witnessing a 21st-century re-enactment of a 600BC battle between the Scythian Horse Lords (Ukraine, Crimea) and their antagonists? Indeed, the unity, resourcefulness, and especially Ukraine’s ability to quickly adopt allied weapons to their own advantage reflects an inherited tribal facility with modern technology to assure their survival. In the same vein, Ukraine is noted for its expertise and quality of industrial products. Ukraine, the 21st century Horse Lords: Herodotus, the 4th century BC Greek historian, would be amazed but not surprised at Ukraine’s willingness to take on Russia ... with success.)
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has proved a global ‘reveal’ — that Russia is a hollow shell, rotted from within by its own leaders’ corruption. Yet even from its weakened position, Russia (Putin) continues to sacrifice Russian youth, destroying Russia’s economic stability for seemingly nothing more than to sustain Putin’s ego.
From being on good (and profitable) terms with just about every nation on the planet (Western Europe, the Baltics, Ukraine, the Balkans, Chechnya, and the ‘Stans’), and raking in huge profits from fossil fuel sales, Russia has in 6 months lost almost all of this ‘capital.’
An especially critical loss to Russia are the choices of former buffer countries, Finland and Sweden, to seek admission to NATO … and they may be followed by other servitude allies like Chechnya and some of the ‘Stans’ who now see themselves as nations, families, and stability perched on the edge of a cliff at the mercy of Putin’s unstable, cruel, inhumane ego that has shown itself capable of WW2 atrocities and mass destruction. The murders and torture of Ukraine citizens have been extremely costly to Russia.
The effects of Russia and its pains now extend beyond its borders, creating a planet that looks like a dysfunctional family. And nothing excuses Russia’s behavior toward Ukraine from being seen as a cruel, torturing, and near-psychotic state.
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